Mai sharhi kan harkokin jigilar kaya Lars Jensen ya bayyana cewa harajin Trump 2.0 na iya haifar da "tasirin yo-yo," ma'ana cewa buƙatar shigo da kwantena na Amurka na iya canzawa sosai, kamar yo-yo, yana raguwa sosai a wannan kaka kuma zai sake farfadowa a 2026.
A gaskiya ma, yayin da muke shiga shekarar 2025, yanayin da ake ciki a kasuwar jigilar kwantena ba ya bin "rubutun" da masu sharhi ke tsammani gaba ɗaya. Abin farin ciki, an kauce wa ƙalubale mafi mahimmanci - haɗarin yajin aiki a tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Gabashin Tekun -. A ranar 8 ga Janairu, Ƙungiyar Duniya ta Longshoremen (ILA) da Ƙungiyar Haɗin Kan Maritime ta Amurka (USMX) sun sanar da yarjejeniyar farko. Duk da haka, wannan hakika labari ne mai daɗi ga kwanciyar hankali a kasuwar jigilar kwantena a shekarar 2025.
A halin yanzu, aiwatar da tsarin aiki ta hanyar Premier Alliance, haɗin gwiwar "Gemini", da kuma Kamfanin Jiragen Ruwa na Mediterranean (MSC) a farkon watan Fabrairu na iya haifar da wani yanayi na ɗan gajeren lokaci, amma da zarar an kammala aiwatar da tsarin aiki, ana iya tsammanin yanayin kasuwa mai ɗorewa da inganci a shekarar 2025, wanda kuma labari ne mai daɗi ga manajojin sarkar samar da kayayyaki.
Duk da haka, tasirin Trump Tariffs 2.0 har yanzu yana buƙatar ƙarin la'akari, musamman a cikin yanayin rashin daidaiton buƙatun wadata da buƙata a kasuwar Amurka. A zahiri, barazanar harajin kawai ta riga ta shafi kasuwa, inda wasu masu shigo da kaya na Amurka ke "gaggauta jigilar kaya" don rage haɗari. Amma abin da zai faru a 2025 da 2026 zai dogara ne akan girman da girman harajin da aka aiwatar a ƙarshe.
Har yanzu ba a san irin girman da kuma lokacin da za a yi amfani da harajin Trump 2.0 ba. Duk da haka, idan aka aiwatar da tsauraran matakan haraji, tasirin yo-yo zai fara aiki.
A halin yanzu, Adam Lewis, shugaban dillalan kwastam na Clearit a Amurka, ya yi gargadin cewa Trump ya bayyana a matsayin wanda ya dage, kuma saurin aiwatarwa na iya zama da sauri fiye da yadda ake tsammani, yana mai kira da a shirya.
Ya yi gargaɗi, "Lokacin aiwatarwa zai iya zama makonni kalilan."
Ya nuna cewa Trump na iya amfani da dokoki na musamman don hanzarta aiwatar da su, ta hanyar kauce wa dogayen shawarwari a Majalisa.
Dokar da aka kafa a shekarar 1977 ta ba wa shugaban Amurka izinin shiga tsakani a harkokin cinikayyar kasa da kasa bayan ayyana dokar ta baci ta kasa don magance duk wata barazana da ba a saba gani ba da Amurka ke fuskanta. An fara amfani da ita ne a lokacin rikicin garkuwa da mutane na Iran a karkashin gwamnatin Carter.
Rahotanni sun nuna cewa membobin ƙungiyar tattalin arziki ta Trump suna tattaunawa kan shirin ƙara haraji a hankali da kusan kashi 2-5% a kowane wata.
Brandon Fried, babban daraktan ƙungiyar sufurin jiragen sama (AfA), yana da irin wannan damuwa. Ya lura, "Ina ganin muna buƙatar ɗaukar kalaman Trump kan harajin da muhimmanci."
AfA tana adawa da shingayen harajin kwastam, domin galibi suna ƙara farashi kuma suna iya haifar da matakan ramuwar gayya waɗanda ke ƙara kawo cikas ga ciniki. Duk da haka, ya lura cewa, "Wannan jirgin ƙasa ne mai sauri, kuma ba abu ne mai sauƙi a kauce masa ba."
Babban hidimarmu:
·Jirgin Ruwa
·Jirgin Sama
·Sauke Kaya Ɗaya Daga Ma'ajiyar Kaya ta Ƙasashen Waje
Barka da zuwa don yin tambaya game da farashi tare da mu:
Contact: ivy@szwayota.com.cn
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Lokacin Saƙo: Janairu-18-2025
